Lesosky Maia, Dumas Sarah, Conradie Ilana, Handel Ian Graham, Jennings Amy, Thumbi Samuel, Toye Phillip, Bronsvoort Barend Mark de Clare
Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2013 Jan;45(1):311-6. doi: 10.1007/s11250-012-0220-3. Epub 2012 Aug 25.
The accurate estimation of livestock weights is important for many aspects of livestock management including nutrition, production and appropriate dosing of pharmaceuticals. Subtherapeutic dosing has been shown to accelerate pathogen resistance which can have subsequent widespread impacts. There are a number of published models for the prediction of live weight from morphometric measurements of cattle, but many of these models use measurements difficult to gather and include complicated age, size and gender stratification. In this paper, we use data from the Infectious Diseases of East Africa calf cohort study and additional data collected at local markets in western Kenya to develop a simple model based on heart girth circumference to predict live weight of east African shorthorn zebu (SHZ) cattle. SHZ cattle are widespread throughout eastern and southern Africa and are economically important multipurpose animals. We demonstrate model accuracy by splitting the data into training and validation subsets and comparing fitted and predicted values. The final model is weight(0.262) = 0.95 + 0.022 × girth which has an R (2) value of 0.98 and 95 % prediction intervals that fall within the ± 20 % body weight error band regarded as acceptable when dosing livestock. This model provides a highly reliable and accurate method for predicting weights of SHZ cattle using a single heart girth measurement which can be easily obtained with a tape measure in the field setting.
准确估算牲畜体重对牲畜管理的诸多方面都很重要,包括营养、生产以及药物的适当剂量。亚治疗剂量已被证明会加速病原体抗药性,这可能会产生后续广泛影响。有许多已发表的模型可根据牛的形态测量数据预测活体重,但其中许多模型使用的数据难以收集,且包含复杂的年龄、体型和性别分层。在本文中,我们使用东非犊牛队列传染病研究的数据以及在肯尼亚西部当地市场收集的额外数据,开发了一个基于胸围的简单模型来预测东非短角瘤牛(SHZ)的活体重。SHZ牛广泛分布于东非和南非,是具有重要经济意义的多用途动物。我们通过将数据分为训练子集和验证子集,并比较拟合值和预测值来证明模型的准确性。最终模型为体重(0.262) = 0.95 + 0.022 × 胸围,其R(2)值为0.98,95%预测区间落在给牲畜用药时被视为可接受的±20%体重误差范围内。该模型提供了一种高度可靠且准确的方法,通过单一的胸围测量来预测SHZ牛的体重,这种测量在实地环境中用卷尺就能轻松获得。