Department of Sports Medicine, Disease Prevention and Rehabilitation, Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Albert-Schweitzer Str. 22, 55128, Mainz, Germany.
Drug Test Anal. 2013 Jun;5(6):384-9. doi: 10.1002/dta.1406. Epub 2012 Aug 29.
The introduction of doping substances and methods in sports triggers noticeable effects on physical performance in metric sports. Here, we use time series analysis to investigate the recent development in male and female elite sprinting performance. Time series displaying the average of the world's top 20 athletes were analyzed employing polynomial spline functions and moving averages. Outstanding changes in performance over time were statistically analyzed by Welch's t-test and by Cohen's measurements of effect. For validation we exemplarily show that our analysis is capable of indicating the effect of the introduction of in- and out-of-competition doping testing on women's shot put as well as the effects of the market introduction of erythropoietin (EPO) and the introduction of EPO and continuous erythropoiesis receptor activator (CERA) testing on 5000 m top 20 male performances. Time series analysis for 100 m men reveals a highly significant (p < 0.001) drop by more than 0.1 s from 2006 to 2011 with a large effect size of 0.952. This is roughly half of the effect size that can be found for the development of the 5000 m performance during the introduction of EPO between 1991 and 1996. While the men's 200 m sprinting performance shows a similar development, the women's 100 m and 200 m sprinting performances only show some minor abnormalities. We will discuss here why the striking sex-specific improvement in sprinting performance is indicative for a novel, very effective doping procedure with insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) being the primary candidate explaining the observed effects.
兴奋剂物质和方法在体育运动中的引入对计量运动的身体表现产生了显著影响。在这里，我们使用时间序列分析来研究男性和女性精英短跑表现的最新发展。通过多项式样条函数和移动平均值分析显示世界前 20 名运动员平均成绩的时间序列。通过 Welch t 检验和 Cohen 效应测量对随时间变化的性能显著变化进行了统计学分析。为了验证，我们举例说明了我们的分析能够指示出引入比赛内外兴奋剂检测对女子铅球的影响，以及促红细胞生成素 (EPO) 的市场引入和 EPO 和持续红细胞生成素受体激活剂 (CERA) 对 5000 米前 20 名男性成绩的影响。对 100 米男子的时间序列分析显示，2006 年至 2011 年，成绩下降了 0.1 秒以上，具有非常显著的效果（p < 0.001），效果大小为 0.952。这大约是 1991 年至 1996 年 EPO 引入期间 5000 米成绩发展中发现的效果大小的一半。虽然男子 200 米短跑成绩表现出类似的发展，但女子 100 米和 200 米短跑成绩仅表现出一些微小的异常。我们将在这里讨论为什么男子短跑成绩的显著性别特异性提高表明了一种新的、非常有效的兴奋剂程序，胰岛素样生长因子-1 (IGF-1) 是解释观察到的效果的主要候选者。
