Medical College of Wisconsin, 8701 Watertown Plank Road, Milwaukee, WI 53226-0509, USA.
Stat Med. 2013 Mar 15;32(6):899-913. doi: 10.1002/sim.5597. Epub 2012 Sep 4.
Clinical trials are often performed using a group sequential design in order to allow investigators to review the accumulating data sequentially and possibly terminate the trial early for efficacy or futility. Standard methods for comparing survival distributions have been shown under varying levels of generality to follow an independent increments structure. In the presence of competing risks, where the occurrence of one type of event precludes the occurrence of another type of event, researchers may be interested in inference on the cumulative incidence function, which describes the probability of experiencing a particular event by a given time. This manuscript shows that two commonly used tests for comparing cumulative incidence functions, a pointwise comparison at a single point, and Gray's test, also follow the independent increments structure when used in a group sequential setting. A simulation study confirms the theoretical derivations even for modest trial sample sizes. We used two examples of clinical trials in hematopoietic cell transplantation to illustrate the techniques.
临床试验通常采用群组序贯设计,以便研究人员能够对累积数据进行序贯审查,并可能因疗效或无效而提前终止试验。在不同的一般性水平下,已经证明用于比较生存分布的标准方法遵循独立增量结构。在存在竞争风险的情况下,一种类型的事件的发生排除了另一种类型的事件的发生,研究人员可能对累积发生率函数的推断感兴趣,该函数描述了在给定时间内经历特定事件的概率。本文表明,两种常用的累积发生率函数比较检验方法,即单点的逐点比较和 Gray 检验,在群组序贯设置中也遵循独立增量结构。一项模拟研究甚至在适度的试验样本量下也证实了理论推导。我们使用造血细胞移植中两个临床试验的例子来说明这些技术。