Rosina Alessandro, Caltabiano Marcantonio
Department of Statistics, Catholic University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med. 2012 Oct;25 Suppl 4:45-7. doi: 10.3109/14767058.2012.714983.
The study aims at analysing the recent trends in fertility in Italy and at discussing its possible future trends.
We analyse the evolution of demographic indicators, such as the total fertility rate and the maternal age in Italy, in the last 30 years and we look for the most relevant determinants of birth postponement. We also discuss the most recent fertility forecasts for Italy and their implications.
In Italy, the total fertility rate has declined sharply in the last 30 years, reaching a level among the lowest in the world. However, in the last decade a reversal in this trend has been recorded. We here show that, net of the effect of immigration, this reversal is mainly due to a recovery of postponed births after age 30. Nevertheless, this recovery is not sufficient to raise the total fertility rates up to the replacement level. The reasons for this insufficient recovery are related both to the marked delay in transition to adulthood and to the difficult reconciliation of work and maternity for Italian women, both hampering the fertility rates.
The fertility decline in Italy has finally stopped in the last years even if the maternal age is continuously increasing. However, without ad hoc family policies the fertility recovery will be weak and limited to those areas of the country with a better welfare system and economically more developed.
本研究旨在分析意大利近期的生育趋势，并探讨其未来可能的趋势。
我们分析了意大利过去30年人口指标的演变，如总和生育率和孕产妇年龄，并寻找生育推迟的最相关决定因素。我们还讨论了意大利最新的生育预测及其影响。
在意大利，总和生育率在过去30年中急剧下降，达到世界最低水平之一。然而，在过去十年中，这一趋势出现了逆转。我们在此表明，在扣除移民影响后，这种逆转主要是由于30岁以后推迟生育的恢复。然而，这种恢复不足以将总和生育率提高到更替水平。恢复不足的原因既与向成年期过渡的明显延迟有关，也与意大利女性在工作与生育之间难以协调有关，这两者都阻碍了生育率。
意大利的生育率下降在过去几年终于停止，尽管孕产妇年龄在持续增加。然而，如果没有特别的家庭政策，生育恢复将很微弱，并且仅限于该国福利制度较好和经济较发达的地区。
