Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
PLoS One. 2012;7(9):e43846. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0043846. Epub 2012 Sep 7.
Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world's highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000-10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government's proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.
东南亚的森林砍伐率位居世界前列，这威胁到许多依赖森林的物种的生存，使其面临灭绝的风险。预计气候变化将与森林砍伐相互作用，从而加剧这种风险。在这里，我们研究了区域内可持续森林管理激励措施是否能够有效提高受威胁的哺乳动物保护水平，无论是单独实施还是与全球气候变化缓解措施相结合。
方法/主要发现：利用沙巴（2000-2010 年）猩猩巢数的长期时间序列，我们评估了可持续森林管理和气候变化情景及其相互作用对猩猩空间丰富度模式的影响。通过链接动态土地覆盖和下推的全球气候模型预测，我们确定了这些因素对猩猩空间丰富度的相对影响，并利用由此产生的统计模型确定对其长期保护至关重要的栖息地。结果表明，土地覆盖变化和原生森林的退化对猩猩种群规模的影响最大。预计气候变化将导致目前居住地区的数量减少，因为栖息地适宜性降低，但也将通过增加目前未居住地区的适宜性，促进沙巴西部的种群增长。
结论/意义：我们发现有强有力的定量证据支持沙巴政府在当前十年内在其所有森林保护区实施可持续森林管理的提议；否则，到 2100 年，沙巴猩猩的数量可能会减少 40%至 80%。沙巴猩猩只是众多依赖森林的物种之一（尽管是标志性物种），它将从可持续森林管理中受益，促进对现有森林的保护。
