Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Oslo, Norway.
J Fish Dis. 2013 Jan;36(1):25-33. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2761.2012.01415.x. Epub 2012 Sep 12.
The aim of this study was to model sea lice levels and the effect on reproduction by a stochastic simulation model and to evaluate the uncertainty of lice estimates based upon counts. Two empirical data sets were examined to parameterize the models. An overall fit of the data to the Poisson distribution was found and thus was used as the base of the stochastic models. In the model, salmon lice reproduction is not linear with the number of adult females and at low lice loads a smaller proportion of the adult female lice will reproduce. Depending on the variance structure, it was estimated that between 40% and 60% of the adult female lice will reproduce at an abundance of 0.5 adult females per fish. Lice counts, especially when examining few fish at low lice loads, are uncertain and at a true abundance of 0.1 one may count between 0 and 5 lice when examining 10 fish. Understanding the dynamics of sea lice reproduction is a key factor in the development of sustainable control strategies.
本研究的目的是通过随机模拟模型来模拟海虱水平及其对繁殖的影响，并评估基于计数的虱估计的不确定性。检查了两个经验数据集来参数化模型。发现数据总体上符合泊松分布，因此被用作随机模型的基础。在模型中，鲑鱼虱的繁殖与成年雌性的数量不成线性关系，而且在低虱负荷下，成年雌性虱的繁殖比例较小。根据方差结构的不同，估计在丰度为每尾鱼 0.5 只成年雌性虱时，有 40%至 60%的成年雌性虱会繁殖。虱的数量，特别是在检查低虱负荷下的少数鱼类时，是不确定的，在真实丰度为 0.1 时，检查 10 条鱼时可能会记录到 0 到 5 只虱。了解海虱繁殖的动态是制定可持续控制策略的关键因素。
