Groner Maya L, Rogers Luke A, Bateman Andrew W, Connors Brendan M, Frazer L Neil, Godwin Sean C, Krkošek Martin, Lewis Mark A, Peacock Stephanie J, Rees Erin E, Revie Crawford W, Schlägel Ulrike E
Department of Health Management, Centre for Veterinary and Epidemiological Research, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, 550 University Avenue, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada C1A 4P3
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3B2.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016 Mar 5;371(1689). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0203.
Effective disease management can benefit from mathematical models that identify drivers of epidemiological change and guide decision-making. This is well illustrated in the host-parasite system of sea lice and salmon, which has been modelled extensively due to the economic costs associated with sea louse infections on salmon farms and the conservation concerns associated with sea louse infections on wild salmon. Consequently, a rich modelling literature devoted to sea louse and salmon epidemiology has been developed. We provide a synthesis of the mathematical and statistical models that have been used to study the epidemiology of sea lice and salmon. These studies span both conceptual and tactical models to quantify the effects of infections on host populations and communities, describe and predict patterns of transmission and dispersal, and guide evidence-based management of wild and farmed salmon. As aquaculture production continues to increase, advances made in modelling sea louse and salmon epidemiology should inform the sustainable management of marine resources.
有效的疾病管理可以借助数学模型，这些模型能够识别流行病学变化的驱动因素并指导决策。这在海虱与鲑鱼的宿主-寄生虫系统中得到了充分体现，由于鲑鱼养殖场中海虱感染带来的经济成本以及野生鲑鱼中海虱感染引发的保护问题，该系统已得到广泛建模。因此，已经形成了大量致力于海虱与鲑鱼流行病学的建模文献。我们对用于研究海虱与鲑鱼流行病学的数学和统计模型进行了综述。这些研究涵盖了概念模型和战术模型，以量化感染对宿主种群和群落的影响，描述和预测传播与扩散模式，并指导对野生和养殖鲑鱼进行基于证据的管理。随着水产养殖产量持续增加，海虱与鲑鱼流行病学建模方面取得的进展应为海洋资源的可持续管理提供参考。
