Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, 3710 McClintock Ave. RTH 316, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
Risk Anal. 2013 May;33(5):909-14. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01889.x. Epub 2012 Sep 17.
In this article, multiple forecasts given as probabilities of events are aggregated using two assumptions: calibration and conditional independence. The forecasts are treated as data and the aggregation is based on Bayes's theorem. A measure of discrimination is given and the behavior of the aggregated posterior probability is examined as the number of forecasters grows without bound. The work is motivated by recent research efforts employing large numbers of individual forecasts.
本文使用两个假设（校准和条件独立性）对以事件概率形式给出的多个预测进行聚合。预测被视为数据，聚合基于贝叶斯定理。给出了一个判别度量，并随着预测者数量的无限增长，研究了聚合后验概率的行为。这项工作的动机是最近使用大量个体预测的研究工作。
