Department of Anthropology, Integrative Anthropological Sciences Program, University of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA.
Am J Hum Biol. 2012 Nov-Dec;24(6):786-99. doi: 10.1002/ajhb.22316. Epub 2012 Sep 17.
We develop and test a conceptual model of factors influencing women's ideal family size (IFS) in a natural fertility population, the Tsimane of Bolivia. The model posits affects of socioecology, reproductive history, maternal condition, and men's IFS. We test three hypotheses for why women may exceed their IFS despite experiencing socioeconomic development: (H(1) ) limited autonomy; (H(2) ) improved maternal condition; and (H(3) ) low returns on investments in embodied capital.
Women's reproductive histories and prospective fertility data were collected from 2002 to 2008 (n = 305 women). Semistructured interviews were conducted with Tsimane women to study the perceived value of parental investment (n = 76). Multiple regression, t-tests, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are used to test model predictions.
Women's IFS is predicted by their socioecology, reproductive history, maternal condition, and husband's IFS. Hypotheses 2 and 3 are supported. Couples residing near town have smaller IFS (women = 3.75 ± 1.64; men = 3.87 ± 2.64) and less variance in IFS. However, the degree fertility exceeds IFS is inversely correlated with distance to town (Partial r = -0.189, df = 156, P = 0.018). Women living near town have greater maternal condition but 64% value traditional skills over formal schooling and 88% believe living in town is unfeasible.
While reduced IFS is evident with socioeconomic development, fertility decline may not immediately follow. When perceived benefits of investment in novel forms of embodied capital are low, and somatic wealth and large kin networks persist as important components of fitness, fertility may remain high and increase if maternal condition improves.
我们开发并检验了一个影响玻利维亚提斯曼人理想家庭规模（IFS）的因素概念模型，该模型假设了社会生态学、生育史、产妇状况和男性 IFS 的影响。我们检验了为什么女性尽管经历了社会经济发展，仍可能超出其 IFS 的三个假设：（H1）有限的自主权；（H2）产妇状况改善；以及（H3）对身体资本投资的回报较低。
从 2002 年至 2008 年收集了 305 名女性的生育史和预期生育数据。对提斯曼女性进行了半结构化访谈，以研究父母投资的感知价值（n=76）。使用多元回归、t 检验和方差分析（ANOVA）来检验模型预测。
女性的 IFS 由其社会生态学、生育史、产妇状况和丈夫的 IFS 决定。假设 2 和 3 得到支持。居住在城镇附近的夫妇的 IFS 较小（女性=3.75±1.64；男性=3.87±2.64），IFS 的变化也较小。然而，超出 IFS 的生育程度与距离城镇成反比（偏相关系数= -0.189，自由度=156，P=0.018）。居住在城镇附近的女性的产妇状况较好，但 64%的人重视传统技能而非正规教育，88%的人认为居住在城镇不可行。
尽管社会经济发展导致 IFS 减少，但生育率可能不会立即下降。当投资新型身体资本的预期收益较低，而身体财富和大型亲属网络仍然是适应度的重要组成部分时，生育率可能仍然较高，如果产妇状况改善，生育率可能会增加。
