Institute for Multidisciplinary Research, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
Environ Manage. 2012 Dec;50(6):979-81. doi: 10.1007/s00267-012-9951-1. Epub 2012 Sep 21.
The Tens Rule, as well as the last stage described therein, i.e., the proportion of established species that becomes pests, is frequently perceived by the scientific community to indicate that introduced established species have little impact on communities. This belief is dangerous because it strengthens the perspective of the general public and decision makers that the risks of species introductions are largely overestimated. It is often difficult to detect the actual negative impact of an introduced established species. It might be less apparent or indirect; it might be delayed or masked by the "noise" caused by other anthropogenic disturbances. It is also likely that numerous ecological interactions are still not detected or properly understood. Therefore, the ten-percent rule might be more of an indicator of our lack of understanding of the impacts that established introduced species produce than the actual ratio of such species that produces negative impacts. In such a state of affairs, adopting the precautionary principle is crucial. The scientific community must be much more cautious and responsible regarding the message it delivers to the general public and management authorities.
“十分之一法则”，以及其中描述的最后一个阶段，即已建立的物种成为害虫的比例，经常被科学界认为表明引入的已建立物种对群落几乎没有影响。这种信念是危险的，因为它加强了公众和决策者的观点，即物种引入的风险被大大高估。通常很难发现引入的已建立物种的实际负面影响。它可能不太明显或间接；它可能会被其他人为干扰造成的“噪音”延迟或掩盖。也可能有许多生态相互作用尚未被发现或正确理解。因此，十分之一法则更可能是我们对已建立的引入物种产生的影响缺乏了解的指标，而不是产生负面影响的此类物种的实际比例。在这种情况下，采取预防原则至关重要。科学界在向公众和管理当局传达信息时必须更加谨慎和负责。
