Laboratorio de Inmunología Experimental. Subdirección de Medicina Experimental. Instituto Nacional de Pediatría, SSA, México DF, C.P. 04530, México.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Nov;106(11):653-9. doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2012.08.004. Epub 2012 Sep 19.
Global warming has had serious implications on dispersion of infectious diseases like toxoplasmosis. Since the frequency of Toxoplasma gondii largely depends on climatic conditions, we studied its prevalence by means of 3599 samples of the National Health Survey 2000 (NHS-2000) and 2916 of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006 (NHNS-2006) serum banks, obtained from 1-98 year old subjects of both genders and all states of Mexico. Anti-T.gondii IgG antibodies were determined by ELISA and confirmed by western blot. Crude, epidemiologically weighted and diagnosis-performance-adjusted prevalence values were calculated. Seroprevalence changes were compared between both surveys and among regions (north, center and coast). Also, correlations between changes in temperature or humidity and those in prevalence were measured. National crude prevalence was 60.1% and 62.6% for NHS-2000 and NHNS-2006, respectively. Weighted and adjusted values were 62.5% and 40.0% for NHS-2000, and 63.7 and 43.1% for NHNS-2006. Coastal states and children presented the largest increases between surveys, while the center of the country showed a decrease. An apparently higher prevalence of T. gondii infection was observed in both surveys compared to that performed in 1987, while a geographical re-distribution was found from 2000 to 2006, with a positive correlation between temperature and frequency deltas in 21 states where prevalence increased.
全球变暖对包括弓形虫病在内的传染病的传播产生了严重影响。由于刚地弓形虫的流行频率在很大程度上取决于气候条件，因此我们通过对 1987 年至 2006 年全国健康调查 2000 年（NHS-2000）的 3599 份样本和 2006 年全国健康和营养调查 2916 份血清库的研究，来研究其流行情况。这些样本来自墨西哥所有州的 1-98 岁的男女受试者。通过 ELISA 测定抗刚地弓形虫 IgG 抗体，并通过 Western blot 进行确认。计算了未经调整、流行病学加权和诊断性能调整的流行率值。比较了两项调查之间以及各地区（北部、中部和沿海地区）之间的血清阳性率变化。还测量了温度或湿度变化与流行率变化之间的相关性。NHS-2000 和 NHNS-2006 的全国粗流行率分别为 60.1%和 62.6%。NHS-2000 和 NHNS-2006 的加权和调整值分别为 62.5%和 40.0%，为 63.7%和 43.1%。沿海各州和儿童在两次调查之间的增幅最大，而该国中部地区则有所下降。与 1987 年进行的调查相比，我们在这两项调查中都观察到了弓形虫感染率明显上升，而从 2000 年到 2006 年，发现了弓形虫的地理分布重新分布，在 21 个流行率增加的州，温度和频率变化之间存在正相关关系。
