Division of Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2012;2:753. doi: 10.1038/srep00753. Epub 2012 Oct 18.
Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shortage on the population dynamics of vultures, and is necessary to assess the potential impacts of policy decisions on future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services. A novel computational model (P-systems) was used to model these effects, forecasting a rapid decline in the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus). By contrast, vulture species with greater plasticity in their dietary range appeared less sensitive to declining food availability. This study extends our understanding of vulture ecosystem services, which have social and economic implications.
生物多样性的丧失是由于人类对生态系统动态的负面影响造成的。然而，这些影响的规模和复杂性可能仍然被大大低估了。近年来，大多数旧大陆秃鹫的数量迅速减少。在欧洲，它们的直接保护取决于影响国内尸体提供食物供应的卫生法规的变化。关于假设的食物短缺对秃鹫种群动态的影响的信息缺乏，这对于评估政策决策对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化的潜在影响是必要的。一种新的计算模型（P 系统）被用来模拟这些影响，预测欧亚秃鹫（Gyps fulvus）的数量将迅速减少。相比之下，在饮食范围上更具弹性的秃鹫物种对食物供应减少的敏感性较低。这项研究扩展了我们对秃鹫生态系统服务的理解，这些服务具有社会和经济意义。
