Peer Eyal, Gamliel Eyal
Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, USA.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 2012 Nov;141(3):352-9. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2012.09.005. Epub 2012 Oct 23.
People generally overestimate the time they can save when increasing from a relatively high driving speed. Previous research suggested that people follow a Proportion Heuristic, calculating the time saved as the proportion of speed increase from the new higher speed. The present study suggests that drivers use another heuristic - the Percentage Heuristic - to calculate how much time they save by increasing speed. In the percentage heuristic, the initial (rather than higher) speed is used as the denominator. Using a discriminating set of questions, we classified participants' responses as normative (correct answer), as following the proportion or percentage heuristic, or some other strategy. We found that participants used the percentage heuristic more often, perhaps because it predicts linearly increasing values of time saved when increasing speed. In addition, we found that participants high in need for cognition (NFC) gave correct answers more often than low NFC participants who relied more on heuristics.
人们通常会高估从相对较高的驾驶速度提高速度时所能节省的时间。先前的研究表明，人们遵循比例启发式，将节省的时间计算为新的较高速度下速度增加的比例。本研究表明，驾驶员使用另一种启发式——百分比启发式——来计算通过提高速度能节省多少时间。在百分比启发式中，初始（而非较高）速度用作分母。通过一组有区分性的问题，我们将参与者的回答分类为规范的（正确答案）、遵循比例或百分比启发式，或其他一些策略。我们发现参与者更常使用百分比启发式，这可能是因为它预测了提高速度时节省时间的线性增加值。此外，我们发现认知需求较高（NFC）的参与者比依赖启发式更多的低NFC参与者更常给出正确答案。
