Plaisier A P, van Oortmarssen G J, Habbema J D, Remme J, Alley E S
Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, Medical Faculty, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 1990 Jan;31(1):43-56. doi: 10.1016/0169-2607(90)90030-d.
ONCHOSIM is a computer program for modelling the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease onchocerciasis, or river blindness. It is developed in collaboration with the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP), and is used as a tool in the evaluation and planning of control operations. The model comprises a detailed description of the life history of the parasite Onchocerca volvulus and of its transmission from person to person by Simulium flies. The effects of different control strategies, based on larvicide application and chemotherapy (ivermectin), on the transmission and on the disease symptoms can be evaluated and predicted. In the program two simulation techniques are mixed. Stochastic microsimulation is used to calculate the life events of individual persons and inhabitant parasites, while the dynamics of the Simulium population and the development of the parasite in the flies are simulated deterministically. Output of ONCHOSIM conforms to the format in which data collected by the OCP are reported. This enables detailed checking of model specifications against empirical data. Output can also consist of summarizing key indices for the intensity of onchocerciasis infection, which is especially useful for comparing the effectivity of control strategies.
ONCHOSIM是一个用于模拟热带寄生虫病盘尾丝虫病（又称河盲症）传播与控制情况的计算机程序。它是与西非盘尾丝虫病控制计划（OCP）合作开发的，并用作控制行动评估和规划的工具。该模型详细描述了寄生虫旋盘尾丝虫的生活史及其通过蚋蝇在人与人之间的传播。基于使用杀幼虫剂和化疗（伊维菌素）的不同控制策略对传播和疾病症状的影响可以得到评估和预测。在该程序中，混合了两种模拟技术。随机微观模拟用于计算个体人员和寄生在人体内的寄生虫的生命事件，而蚋蝇种群的动态以及寄生虫在蝇体内的发育则采用确定性模拟。ONCHOSIM的输出符合OCP报告所收集数据的格式。这使得能够根据经验数据详细检查模型规格。输出还可以包括盘尾丝虫病感染强度的关键汇总指标，这对于比较控制策略的有效性特别有用。
