文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

更新 Spectrum/Estimation 和 Projection 软件包 (EPP) 模型,以估计成人和儿童艾滋病毒流行趋势。

Updates to the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model to estimate HIV trends for adults and children.

机构信息

Futures Institute, 41A New London Turnpike, Glastonbury, Connecticut 6033, USA.

出版信息

Sex Transm Infect. 2012 Dec;88 Suppl 2(Suppl_2):i11-6. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2012-050640.


DOI:10.1136/sextrans-2012-050640
PMID:23172341
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3512426/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Spectrum and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) programs are used to estimate key HIV indicators based on HIV surveillance and surveys, programme statistics and epidemic patterns. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment, the need for preventing mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and the impact of antiretroviral treatment on survival. METHODS: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest updates described here were used in the 2011 round of global estimates. RESULTS: Spectrum and EPP have now been combined into one software package to enhance ease of use and ensure consistent data and assumptions for the curve fitting and indicator estimations. Major enhancements to the methods include a new adult model that tracks the HIV+ population by CD4 count; new patterns describing child survival by time of infection (perinatally, <6 months, 7-12 months and 12+ months after birth); a more detailed estimate of mother-to-child transmission that includes differential transmission rates by CD4 count of the mother, the effects of incident infections and new prophylaxis options; and new procedures to estimate uncertainty ranges around regional estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The revised model and software facilitate the preparation of new HIV estimates and use new data to address emerging needs for better information on need for treatment among adults and children.

摘要

背景:Spectrum 和 Estimation and Projection Package(EPP)程序用于根据 HIV 监测和调查、规划统计数据和流行模式来估计关键的 HIV 指标。这些指标包括:HIV 感染者人数、新感染人数、艾滋病死亡人数、艾滋病孤儿人数、需要治疗的成年人和儿童人数、预防母婴传播(PMTCT)的需求以及抗逆转录病毒治疗对生存率的影响。

方法:联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)估计、模型和预测参考小组定期审查新数据和信息需求,并建议更新 Spectrum 中使用的方法和假设。这里描述的最新更新用于 2011 年全球估计数的一轮计算。

结果:Spectrum 和 EPP 现在已合并为一个软件包,以增强易用性并确保曲线拟合和指标估计的数据和假设保持一致。方法的主要改进包括一个新的成人模型,该模型通过 CD4 计数跟踪 HIV+人群;描述按感染时间(围产期、<6 个月、7-12 个月和 12 个月后)的儿童生存新模式;更详细的母婴传播估计,包括按母亲 CD4 计数、新发感染的影响和新的预防选择的差异传播率;以及用于估计区域估计数的不确定性范围的新程序。

结论:修订后的模型和软件有助于编制新的 HIV 估计数,并利用新数据满足更好地了解成人和儿童治疗需求的新需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/d503cfab4288/sextrans-2012-050640f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/bda61f438b3a/sextrans-2012-050640f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/8e3e275639aa/sextrans-2012-050640f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/d4f7d52c88ea/sextrans-2012-050640f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/d503cfab4288/sextrans-2012-050640f04.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/bda61f438b3a/sextrans-2012-050640f01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/8e3e275639aa/sextrans-2012-050640f02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/d4f7d52c88ea/sextrans-2012-050640f03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b34a/3512426/d503cfab4288/sextrans-2012-050640f04.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Updates to the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model to estimate HIV trends for adults and children.

Sex Transm Infect. 2012-12

[2]
Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package.

Sex Transm Infect. 2006-6

[3]
The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds.

Sex Transm Infect. 2008-8

[4]
Updates to the spectrum model to estimate key HIV indicators for adults and children.

AIDS. 2014-11

[5]
The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans.

Sex Transm Infect. 2010-12

[6]
Updates to the Spectrum/Estimations and Projections Package model for estimating trends and current values for key HIV indicators.

AIDS. 2017-4

[7]
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Lancet HIV. 2016-7-19

[8]
Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.

AIDS. 2014-11

[9]
Updates to the Spectrum/AIM model for the UNAIDS 2020 HIV estimates.

J Int AIDS Soc. 2021-9

[10]
Modelling national HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011.

Sex Transm Infect. 2012-10-8

引用本文的文献

[1]
Progress and challenges towards eliminating vertical transmission of HIV in India.

Sci Rep. 2025-7-11

[2]
The AIDS Epidemic Model 2023 for Estimating HIV Trends and Transmission Dynamics in Asian Epidemic Settings.

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2024-1-1

[3]
Differences in Breastfeeding Duration by Maternal HIV Status: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2024-1-1

[4]
Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2024-1-1

[5]
Trends and projection of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (1990-2030).

Sci Rep. 2023-8-24

[6]
Augmenting progress on the elimination of vertical transmissions of HIV in India: Insights from Spectrum-based HIV burden estimations.

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023-8-9

[7]
A focused multi-state model to estimate the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic in Thailand, 2005-2025.

PLoS One. 2022

[8]
Defining the Global Research and Programmatic Agenda and Priority Actions for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention.

Curr HIV/AIDS Rep. 2022-12

[9]
Diversity in HIV epidemic transitions in India: An application of HIV epidemiological metrices and benchmarks.

PLoS One. 2022

[10]
Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

PLoS Med. 2021-10-18

本文引用的文献

[1]
Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children: a pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa.

Int J Epidemiol. 2011-1-18

[2]
The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans.

Sex Transm Infect. 2010-12

[3]
Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009.

Sex Transm Infect. 2010-10-6

[4]
Pretreatment CD4 cell slope and progression to AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy--the CASCADE collaboration: a collaboration of 23 cohort studies.

PLoS Med. 2010-2-23

[5]
Further benefits by early start of HIV treatment in low income countries: survival estimates of early versus deferred antiretroviral therapy.

AIDS Res Ther. 2010-1-16

[6]
The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds.

Sex Transm Infect. 2008-8

[7]
Estimating 'net' HIV-related mortality and the importance of background mortality rates.

AIDS. 2007-11

[8]
Time from HIV seroconversion to death: a collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy.

AIDS. 2007-11

[9]
Prognostic value of HIV-1 RNA, CD4 cell count, and CD4 Cell count slope for progression to AIDS and death in untreated HIV-1 infection.

JAMA. 2007-6-6

[10]
HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count distributions in African populations.

J Infect Dis. 2006-11-15

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索