Nature. 2012 Nov 29;491(7426):683-91. doi: 10.1038/nature11574.
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W(-1) m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO(2), which agrees with IPCC estimates.
许多古气候研究已经量化了前人类活动时期的气候变化，以计算气候敏感性（对辐射强迫变化的响应的平衡温度变化），但缺乏一致的方法导致了广泛的估计值，并阻碍了结果的可比性。在这里，我们提出了一种更严格的方法，以改善古气候敏感性估计值的相互比较，使其与未来气候变化的平衡预测兼容。在过去的 6500 万年中，这表明气候敏感性（以 K/W(-1)m(2)为单位）分别在 95%或 68%的概率下为 0.3-1.9 或 0.6-1.3，后者意味着大气 CO(2)每增加一倍，温度就会升高 2.2-4.8 K，这与 IPCC 的估计值一致。
