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降雨与温度之间的相互依存关系：Copula分析

The interdependence between rainfall and temperature: copula analyses.

作者信息

Cong Rong-Gang, Brady Mark

机构信息

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research-CEC, Lund University, Lund S-22362, Sweden.

出版信息

ScientificWorldJournal. 2012;2012:405675. doi: 10.1100/2012/405675. Epub 2012 Nov 13.

DOI:10.1100/2012/405675
PMID:23213286
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3504421/
Abstract

Rainfall and temperature are important climatic inputs for agricultural production, especially in the context of climate change. However, accurate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and temperature are difficult due to possible interdependence between them. As one possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Scania is a leading agricultural province in Sweden and is affected by a maritime climate. Historical climatic data for Scania is used to demonstrate the modeling process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that for Scania there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months from April to July and September. The student copula is found to be most suitable to model the bivariate distribution of rainfall and temperature based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using the student copula, we simulate temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated with research on agricultural production and planning to study the effects of changing climate on crop yields.

摘要

降雨和温度是农业生产重要的气候输入要素，在气候变化背景下尤其如此。然而，由于降雨和温度之间可能存在相互依存关系，对它们的联合分布进行准确分析和模拟颇具难度。作为解决此问题的一种可能方法，采用了五类Copula模型来模拟降雨和温度之间的相互依存关系。斯科讷是瑞典的一个主要农业省份，受海洋性气候影响。利用斯科讷的历史气候数据来演示建模过程。还考虑了样本数据的异方差性和自相关性，以消除观测误差的可能性。结果表明，对于斯科讷而言，4月至7月以及9月的降雨和温度之间存在负相关关系。基于赤池信息准则（AIC）和贝叶斯信息准则（BIC），发现学生Copula最适合用于模拟降雨和温度的二元分布。使用学生Copula，我们同时模拟温度和降雨。所得模型可与农业生产和规划研究相结合，以研究气候变化对作物产量的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7d43/3504421/9f1a667bbd42/TSWJ2012-405675.014.jpg
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