Decision Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, PO Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA.
Math Biosci. 2013 Mar;242(1):1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2012.11.002. Epub 2012 Dec 14.
One of the standard methods of accounting for inter-population disease spread in equation-based epidemiology models is through a transportation operator. Implicit in the use of the transportation operator, however, is an assumption that daily travel volumes are small compared to overall population sizes, an assumption that can break down for modern rates of international travel or local commuter traffic. Alternative types of coupling have been proposed in the limit that trip durations are much shorter than the infectious period. We present an extension of these phenomenological models that relaxes both assumptions. We show that the approach produces more accurate results when assessing the impact of mitigative actions using modern travel volumes.
在基于方程的流行病学模型中，一种用于解释人群间疾病传播的标准方法是通过运输算子。然而，使用运输算子隐含着一个假设，即与总人口规模相比，日常旅行量很小，这个假设在现代国际旅行或当地通勤交通的情况下可能会失效。在旅行持续时间比传染期短得多的极限情况下，已经提出了其他类型的耦合。我们提出了这些现象学模型的扩展，放宽了这两个假设。我们表明，当使用现代旅行量评估缓解措施的影响时，这种方法会产生更准确的结果。
