Cui Jing'an, Takeuchi Yasuhiro, Saito Yasuhisa
Department of Mathematics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097,China.
J Theor Biol. 2006 Apr 7;239(3):376-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.08.005. Epub 2005 Oct 10.
Transportation among regions is found as one of the main factors which affect the outbreak of diseases. It will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each city without transport-related infection. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to demonstrate the dynamics of such disease propagation between two regions (or cities) due to the population dispersal and infection on transports. Further, our analysis shows that transport-related infection intensifies the disease spread if infectious diseases break out to cause an endemic situation in each region, in the sense that both the absolute and relative size of patients increase. This suggests that it is very essential to strengthen restrictions of passengers once we know infectious diseases appeared.
区域间的交通被发现是影响疾病爆发的主要因素之一。即使在没有与交通相关感染的情况下，每个城市的传染病都会灭绝，但交通仍会改变疾病动态并引发感染爆发。本文提出了一个数学模型，以展示由于人口流动和交通上的感染，此类疾病在两个区域（或城市）之间传播的动态。此外，我们的分析表明，如果传染病爆发并在每个区域造成地方病情况，与交通相关的感染会加剧疾病传播，从患者的绝对数量和相对规模都增加的意义上来说。这表明一旦我们知道传染病出现，加强对乘客的限制是非常必要的。
