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检验零假设:卡尔·波普尔的被遗忘的遗产?

Testing the null hypothesis: the forgotten legacy of Karl Popper?

出版信息

J Sports Sci. 2013;31(9):919-20. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2012.753636. Epub 2012 Dec 19.

DOI:10.1080/02640414.2012.753636
PMID:23249368
Abstract

Testing of the null hypothesis is a fundamental aspect of the scientific method and has its basis in the falsification theory of Karl Popper. Null hypothesis testing makes use of deductive reasoning to ensure that the truth of conclusions is irrefutable. In contrast, attempting to demonstrate the new facts on the basis of testing the experimental or research hypothesis makes use of inductive reasoning and is prone to the problem of the Uniformity of Nature assumption described by David Hume in the eighteenth century. Despite this issue and the well documented solution provided by Popper's falsification theory, the majority of publications are still written such that they suggest the research hypothesis is being tested. This is contrary to accepted scientific convention and possibly highlights a poor understanding of the application of conventional significance-based data analysis approaches. Our work should remain driven by conjecture and attempted falsification such that it is always the null hypothesis that is tested. The write up of our studies should make it clear that we are indeed testing the null hypothesis and conforming to the established and accepted philosophical conventions of the scientific method.

摘要

对零假设的检验是科学方法的一个基本方面,其基础是卡尔·波普尔的证伪理论。零假设检验利用演绎推理来确保结论的真实性无可置疑。相比之下,试图根据实验或研究假设检验来证明新事实则利用了归纳推理,并且容易受到大卫·休谟在 18 世纪描述的自然一致性假设的问题的影响。尽管存在这个问题以及波普尔的证伪理论所提供的有案可查的解决方案,但大多数出版物的编写方式仍然表明正在检验研究假设。这与公认的科学惯例相悖,可能表明对传统基于显著性数据分析方法的应用理解不足。我们的工作仍然应该以推测和试图证伪为驱动,以使零假设始终是被检验的假设。我们的研究报告应该清楚地表明,我们确实在检验零假设,并符合科学方法既定和公认的哲学惯例。

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