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气候变化导致的死亡率估值:调查调查管理模式对 VSL 的影响。

Valuation of mortality risk attributable to climate change: investigating the effect of survey administration modes on a VSL.

机构信息

Charles University Prague, Environment Center, Praha, Czech Republic.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2012 Dec 18;9(12):4760-81. doi: 10.3390/ijerph9124760.

Abstract

The health impact attributable to climate change has been identified as one of the priority areas for impact assessment. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the monetary value of one key health effect, which is premature mortality. Specifically, our goal is to derive the value of a statistical life from people's willingness to pay for avoiding the risk of dying in one post-transition country in Europe, i.e., the Czech Republic. We carried out a series of conjoint choice experiments in order to value mortality risk reductions. We found the responses to the conjoint choice questions to be reasonable and consistent with the economic paradigm. The VSL is about EUR 2.4 million, and our estimate is comparable with the value of preventing a fatality as used in one of the integrated assessment models. To investigate whether carrying out the survey through the internet may violate the welfare estimate, we administered our questionnaire to two independent samples of respondents using two different modes of survey administration. The results show that the VSLs for the two groups of respondents are €2.25 and €2.55 million, and these figures are statistically indistinguishable. However, the key parameters of indirect utility between the two modes of survey administration are statistically different when specific subgroups of population, such as older respondents, are concerned. Based on this evidence, we conclude that properly designed and administered on-line surveys are a reliable method for administering questionnaires, even when the latter are cognitively challenging. However, attention should be paid to sampling and choice regarding the mode of survey administration if the preference of specific segments of the population is elicited.

摘要

气候变化对健康的影响已被确定为影响评估的优先领域之一。本文的主要目的是估算一种关键健康影响(即过早死亡)的货币价值。具体而言,我们的目标是从人们对避免在欧洲转型后国家(即捷克共和国)死亡风险的支付意愿中得出统计生命价值。我们进行了一系列联合选择实验,以评估死亡率降低的价值。我们发现,对联合选择问题的反应是合理的,并且符合经济范式。VSL 约为 240 万欧元,我们的估计与综合评估模型中用于预防死亡的价值相当。为了研究通过互联网进行调查是否可能违反福利评估,我们使用两种不同的调查管理模式向两个独立的受访者样本管理问卷。结果表明,两组受访者的 VSL 分别为 225 万欧元和 255 万欧元,这些数字在统计学上没有区别。然而,当涉及到特定的人口群体(如老年受访者)时,两种调查管理模式之间的间接效用的关键参数在统计学上存在差异。基于这一证据,我们得出结论,经过适当设计和管理的在线调查是管理问卷的可靠方法,即使问卷具有认知挑战性。然而,如果要引出特定人群的偏好,那么应该注意抽样和选择调查管理模式。

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