Patz Jonathan A, Campbell-Lendrum Diarmid, Holloway Tracey, Foley Jonathan A
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53726, USA.
Nature. 2005 Nov 17;438(7066):310-7. doi: 10.1038/nature04188.
The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
世界卫生组织估计，过去30年人为气候变化导致的气候变暖和降水趋势每年已造成超过15万例死亡。许多常见的人类疾病都与气候波动有关，从热浪导致的心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病，到传染病传播的改变以及作物歉收导致的营养不良。由于缺乏长期、高质量的数据集，以及社会经济因素、免疫力和耐药性变化的巨大影响，在将疾病的扩大或复发归因于气候变化方面仍存在不确定性。在此，我们回顾越来越多的证据表明，在未来气候变化预测下，气候与健康的关系带来的健康风险不断增加，并且近几十年来的变暖趋势已经导致世界许多地区的发病率和死亡率上升。潜在的脆弱地区包括温带地区，预计该地区升温幅度将不成比例；太平洋和印度洋周边地区，由于厄尔尼诺/南方涛动，目前降雨变化很大；撒哈拉以南非洲地区以及不断扩张的城市，城市热岛效应可能会加剧极端气候事件。
