Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) & Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Corso Magenta, 63, 20123 Milan, Italy.
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Feb 5;47(3):1695-703. doi: 10.1021/es303829w. Epub 2013 Jan 11.
This paper compares environmental and profitability outcomes for a centralized biorefinery for cellulosic ethanol that does all processing versus a biorefinery linked to a decentralized array of local depots that pretreat biomass into concentrated briquettes. The analysis uses a spatial bioeconomic model that maximizes profit from crop and energy products, subject to the requirement that the biorefinery must be operated at full capacity. The model draws upon biophysical crop input-output coefficients simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model as well as market input and output prices, spatial transportation costs, ethanol yields from biomass, and biorefinery capital and operational costs. The model was applied to 82 cropping systems simulated across 37 subwatersheds in a 9-county region of southern Michigan in response to ethanol prices simulated to rise from $1.78 to $3.36 per gallon. Results show that the decentralized local biomass processing depots lead to lower profitability but better environmental performance, due to more reliance on perennial grasses than the centralized biorefinery. Simulated technological improvement that reduces the processing cost and increases the ethanol yield of switchgrass by 17% could cause a shift to more processing of switchgrass, with increased profitability and environmental benefits.
本文比较了纤维素乙醇集中式生物炼制厂（可进行所有加工工序）与分布式生物质预处理集中式生物炼制厂（将生物质预处理成浓缩煤球）的环境和盈利结果。该分析使用了空间生物经济模型，该模型在满足生物炼制厂必须满负荷运行的要求下，使作物和能源产品的利润最大化。该模型借鉴了使用环境政策综合气候（EPIC）模型模拟的生物物理作物投入产出系数，以及市场投入和产出价格、空间运输成本、生物质的乙醇产量、生物炼制厂的资本和运营成本。该模型应用于密歇根州南部 9 个县的 37 个小流域内模拟的 82 种种植系统，以应对每加仑 1.78 美元至 3.36 美元的模拟乙醇价格上涨。结果表明，由于更依赖多年生草类，分布式的本地生物质处理站的盈利能力较低，但环境绩效较好。假设加工成本降低 17%，同时提高柳枝稷的乙醇产量，这一模拟技术的改进可能会导致更多的柳枝稷加工，从而带来更高的盈利能力和环境效益。
