Bernal-Pérez M, Souza D L B, Romero-Fernández F J, Gómez-Bernal G, Gómez-Bernal F J
Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario Lozano Blesa, Zaragoza, España.
Actas Urol Esp. 2013 May;37(5):286-91. doi: 10.1016/j.acuro.2012.07.007. Epub 2012 Dec 20.
One of the most frequent cancers in the world is bladder cancer that affects, according to some authors, 5.4 million persons in the most developed countries. Our study has aimed to estimate the impact projections of this disease in Spain between 2007 and 2022.
Mortality data for bladder cancer mortality was used International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10 C67), and the population data from 1998 to 2007. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Relative survival was obtained form the EUROCARE study. The projections of incidence, prevalence, and mortality were estimated using the statistical program Mortality-Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) and after the joinpoint regression that calculates the Annual Percentage of Change (APC).
Between the years 1998 and 2022, it is foreseen that there will be a decrease in prevalence in the men, from 156.93 (adjusted rate AR=128.71) to 132.99 (AR=84.68) cases per 100,000 inhabitants/year in the year 2022. The incidence rate would decrease from 30.2 (AR=24.93) to 24.87 (AR=15.88) and mortality from 14.96 (AR=12.25) to 12.08 (AR=7.67). In women, an increase is expected in prevalence from 21.18 (AR=13.23) to 35.6 (AR=21.46) cases per 100.000 inhabitants/year. The incidence of 4.8 (AR=2.91) in 1998 to 7.79 (AR=4.69), Mortality will increase from 2.25 (AR=1.32) to 3.37 (AR=1.89) between the years 1998 and 2022. In men, the APCs found for prevalence, incidence and mortality were, respectively, 0.69 (95% CI%:-6.9/8.9); 0.69 (95% CI:-6.9/8.95) and -4.18 (95% CI:-11.32/3.51), these not being statistically significant. In women, the APC for prevalence was -4.44 (95% CI:-13.4/5.44). from 19.24 (95% CI:8.93/30.52).and from -3.28 (95% CI:-20.26/17.20) for mortality.
This cancer should be monitored and in turn prevented based on the controllable risk factors, especially in women.
膀胱癌是世界上最常见的癌症之一，一些作者称，在最发达国家，有540万人受其影响。我们的研究旨在估计2007年至2022年期间这种疾病在西班牙的影响预测。
使用国际疾病分类第10版（ICD - 10 C67）中的膀胱癌死亡率数据以及1998年至2007年的人口数据。这些数据来自国家统计局（INE）。相对生存率来自EUROCARE研究。使用统计程序死亡率 - 发病率分析模型（MIAMOD）并通过计算年度变化百分比（APC）的连接点回归来估计发病率、患病率和死亡率的预测。
在1998年至2022年期间，预计男性患病率将下降，从每10万居民/年156.93例（调整率AR = 128.71）降至2022年的132.99例（AR = 84.68）。发病率将从30.2（AR = 24.93）降至24.87（AR = 15.88），死亡率从14.96（AR = 12.25）降至12.08（AR = 7.67）。在女性中，预计患病率将从每10万居民/年21.18例（AR = 13.23）增至35.6例（AR = 21.46）。1998年发病率为4.8（AR = 2.91），到2022年增至7.79（AR = 4.69），死亡率将从2.25（AR = 1.32）增至3.37（AR = 1.89）。在男性中，患病率、发病率和死亡率的APC分别为0.69（95%CI%：-6.9/8.9）；0.69（95%CI：-6.9/8.95）和-4.18（95%CI：-11.32/3.51），这些均无统计学意义。在女性中，患病率的APC为-4.44（95%CI：-13.4/5.44）。发病率的APC为19.24（95%CI：8.93/30.52），死亡率的APC为-3.28（95%CI：-20.26/17.20）。
应基于可控风险因素对这种癌症进行监测并加以预防，尤其是在女性中。
