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贝叶斯计算通过经验似然。

Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood.

机构信息

School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Jan 22;110(4):1321-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1208827110. Epub 2013 Jan 7.

Abstract

Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

摘要

近似贝叶斯计算已成为分析复杂随机模型的重要工具,当似然函数无法数值化时。然而,经验似然这一成熟的统计方法为这种情况提供了另一种途径,可以绕过模型模拟和近似贝叶斯计算参数(摘要统计、距离、容忍度)的选择,同时在观测数量上具有收敛性。此外,绕过模型模拟可能会在复杂模型中节省大量时间,例如在群体遗传学中找到的模型。我们在本文中开发的经验似然贝叶斯计算算法还通过相关的有效样本量提供了对其自身性能的评估。该方法通过几个示例进行了说明,包括标准分布、时间序列和群体遗传学模型的估计。

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