Institute for Health and Aging and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2013 Jan;32(1):127-34. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0533.
The aging of the baby-boom generation, as well as predicted growth in the number of people with disabilities, is expected to increase the demand for long-term services and supports dramatically. This study analyzed data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 1984 to 2010 to discern trends among noninstitutionalized working-age adults and the elderly who had some level of disability or need for help with activities of daily living. Some impairments among the elderly, such as in mobility and mental health, decreased. Meanwhile, some impairments among working-age adults, such as in cognitive ability, increased substantially. Of particular importance, the overall prevalence of disability for both age groups has largely stabilized since 2000. Among working-age adults, that stabilization is good news because it eases concern, fueled by prior research, that this population was becoming increasingly disabled and costly to public benefit programs such as Social Security Disability Insurance. However, the flattening of disability trends among the elderly is not good news, since it suggests that the number of elderly people with disabilities will continue to increase in direct proportion to the growing size of the elderly population. Among other implications, the need for both paid workers and unpaid caregivers to assist elderly people, especially those ages seventy-five and older, will continue to increase sharply.
婴儿潮一代的老龄化，以及预计残疾人数的增长，预计将极大地增加对长期服务和支持的需求。本研究分析了 1984 年至 2010 年《收入和计划参与调查》的数据，以了解在一定程度上有残疾或需要日常生活活动帮助的非机构化工作年龄成年人和老年人中的趋势。老年人的一些残疾，如行动和心理健康方面的残疾，有所减少。与此同时，工作年龄成年人的一些残疾，如认知能力方面的残疾，大幅增加。特别重要的是，自 2000 年以来，两个年龄段的残疾总体流行率基本稳定。对于工作年龄成年人来说，这种稳定是个好消息，因为它缓解了人们的担忧，之前的研究表明，这一人群的残疾程度越来越高，对社会保障残疾保险等公共福利计划的成本也越来越高。然而，老年人残疾趋势的稳定并不是好消息，因为这表明，残疾老年人的数量将继续与老年人口的增长成正比增加。其他影响包括，需要有薪工人和无薪照顾者来帮助老年人，特别是那些 75 岁及以上的老年人，这一需求将继续急剧增加。
