Australian Army Malaria Institute, Enoggera, QLD, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Oct;141(10):2205-12. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812003032. Epub 2013 Jan 16.
This paper draws on the mortality records of the French, US and UK Royal navies to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in global Allied naval forces. For a total of 7658 deaths attributed to respiratory diseases (French and US navies) and all diseases (UK Royal Navy) at 514 locations worldwide, techniques of spatial point pattern analysis were used to generate weekly maps of global mortality intensity in 1918. The map sequence for the main period of pandemic mortality, mid-August to mid-November 1918, revealed a near-simultaneous development of mutiple foci of high disease intensity in three distant locations (Europe, North America, West Africa). Given the relatively slow speed of naval ships in convoy at this time (<12 knots), our findings suggest that the pandemic influenza virus was circulating on three continents at the observed onset of the main mortality wave.
本文利用法国、美国和英国皇家海军的死亡率记录，重建了 1918-1919 年流感大流行在全球盟军海军部队中的时空演变。在全球 514 个地点，共有 7658 人死于呼吸系统疾病（法国和美国海军）和所有疾病（英国皇家海军），使用空间点模式分析技术，生成了 1918 年每周的全球死亡率强度图。主要流行期（1918 年 8 月中旬至 11 月中旬）的地图序列显示，在三个遥远地点（欧洲、北美和西非）同时出现了多个疾病高发点。考虑到当时护航中海军舰艇的相对较慢速度（<12 节），我们的发现表明，在主要死亡浪潮的观察到的起始时，流感病毒已在三大洲传播。
