Laskin Daniel M, Abubaker A Omar, Strauss Robert A
Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Dentistry, Richmond, VA 23298-0566, USA.
J Oral Maxillofac Surg. 2013 Feb;71(2):446-7. doi: 10.1016/j.joms.2012.10.009.
The ability to predict how long a particular operation will take is important for maintaining operating room efficiency. The purpose of this study was to determine how accurate oral and maxillofacial surgeons (OMSs) can be in making this determination.
Three experienced OMSs predicted their operating times for various operations; these predictions were compared with the actual times. The cases were then grouped into those with accurate predictions and those with overestimated and underestimated times, and the operative reports were reviewed for possible operation trends or other contributing factors.
In the 100 cases analyzed, the surgeons correctly estimated operating times 26% of the time, overestimated 42% of the time, and underestimated 32% of the time. In the 42 overestimated times, 10 cases involved multiple tooth extractions or removal of impacted third molars, and 8 cases involved orthognathic surgery. In the 32 underestimated cases, 7 involved orthognathic surgery and 8 involved the open reduction of fractures. The 26 accurately estimated cases involved 7 cases of multiple tooth extractions or impacted third molar removal and 5 cases of arthroscopic temporomandibular joint lysis and lavage.
Although operating times need to be used for scheduling purposes, they can be highly unpredictable. Surgeons need to constantly analyze their predictions for confounding factors in order to improve their accuracy.
预测特定手术所需时长的能力对于维持手术室效率至关重要。本研究的目的是确定口腔颌面外科医生（OMS）在做出这种判断时的准确程度。
三位经验丰富的OMS预测了他们进行各种手术的时间；将这些预测与实际时间进行比较。然后将病例分为预测准确、时间高估和时间低估的病例组，并审查手术报告以寻找可能的手术趋势或其他影响因素。
在分析的100例病例中，外科医生正确估计手术时间的占26%，高估的占42%，低估的占32%。在42次时间高估的病例中，10例涉及多颗牙齿拔除或阻生第三磨牙拔除，8例涉及正颌手术。在32次时间低估的病例中，7例涉及正颌手术，8例涉及骨折切开复位术。26例预测准确的病例中，7例涉及多颗牙齿拔除或阻生第三磨牙拔除，5例涉及关节镜颞下颌关节松解和灌洗术。
虽然手术时间需要用于安排手术，但它们可能高度不可预测。外科医生需要不断分析他们的预测以寻找混杂因素，从而提高准确性。
