Department of Social and Organizational Psychology, ISPA University Institute, Lisboa, Portugal.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2013 Jul;39(4):1192-212. doi: 10.1037/a0031171. Epub 2013 Jan 28.
A robust anomaly in intertemporal choice is the delay-speedup asymmetry: Receipts are discounted more, and payments are discounted less, when delayed than when expedited over the same interval. We developed 2 versions of the tradeoff model (Scholten & Read, 2010) to address such situations, in which an outcome is expected at a given time but then its timing is changed. The outcome framing model generalizes the approach taken by the hyperbolic discounting model (Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992): Not obtaining a positive outcome when expected is a worse than expected state, to which people are over-responsive, or hypersensitive, and not incurring a negative outcome when expected is a better than expected state, to which people are under-responsive, or hyposensitive. The time framing model takes a new approach: Delaying a positive outcome or speeding up a negative one involves a loss of time to which people are hypersensitive, and speeding up a positive outcome or delaying a negative one involves a gain of time to which people are hyposensitive. We compare the models on their quantitative predictions of indifference data from matching and preference data from choice. The time framing model systematically outperforms the outcome framing model.
跨期选择中的一个显著异常现象是延迟-加速不对称性：在相同的时间段内，延迟的收益比加速的收益折现更多，而延迟的支出比加速的支出折现更少。我们开发了权衡模型的 2 个版本（Scholten 和 Read，2010）来解决这种情况，其中一个结果在给定的时间点被预期，但随后其时间点被改变。结果框架模型推广了双曲线折扣模型（Loewenstein 和 Prelec，1992）所采用的方法：当预期的正结果没有出现时，这是一个比预期更糟糕的状态，人们对此反应过度，即过度敏感；当预期的负结果没有出现时，这是一个比预期更好的状态，人们对此反应不足，即低度敏感。时间框架模型采取了一种新的方法：延迟正结果或加速负结果涉及到对时间的损失，人们对此过度敏感；加速正结果或延迟负结果涉及到对时间的增益，人们对此低度敏感。我们根据匹配的无差异数据和选择的偏好数据，比较了模型的定量预测。时间框架模型在系统上优于结果框架模型。
