Scholten Marc, Read Daniel, Sanborn Adam
Department of Marketing, Universidade Europeia.
Department of Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2016 Sep;145(9):1177-205. doi: 10.1037/xge0000198.
We examine preferences for sequences of delayed monetary gains. In the experimental literature, two prominent models have been advanced as psychological descriptions of preferences for sequences. In one model, the instantaneous utilities of the outcomes in a sequence are discounted as a function of their delays, and assembled into a discounted utility of the sequence. In the other model, the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is considered along with utility or disutility from improvement in outcome utilities and utility or disutility from the spreading of outcome utilities. Drawing on three threads of evidence concerning preferences for sequences of monetary gains, we propose that the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is traded off against the of utility accumulation. In our first experiment, aggregate choice behavior provides qualitative support for the tradeoff model. In three subsequent experiments, one of which incentivized, disaggregate choice behavior provides quantitative support for the tradeoff model in Bayesian model contests. One thread of evidence motivating the tradeoff model is that, when, in the choice between two single dated outcomes, it is conveyed that receiving less sooner means receiving nothing later, preference for receiving more later increases, but when it is conveyed that receiving more later means receiving nothing sooner, preference is left unchanged. Our results show that this is indeed driven by those supporting the tradeoff model. The tradeoff model also accommodates all remaining evidence on preferences for sequences of monetary gains.
我们研究了对延迟货币收益序列的偏好。在实验文献中，有两种突出的模型被提出作为对序列偏好的心理描述。在一个模型中，序列中结果的即时效用会根据其延迟进行贴现，并汇总为该序列的贴现效用。在另一个模型中，会考虑序列中结果的累积效用，以及结果效用改善带来的效用或负效用，还有结果效用分散带来的效用或负效用。基于关于货币收益序列偏好的三条证据线索，我们提出序列中结果的累积效用会与效用累积的[此处原文缺失相关内容]进行权衡。在我们的第一个实验中，总体选择行为为权衡模型提供了定性支持。在随后的三个实验中，其中一个实验有激励措施，个体选择行为在贝叶斯模型竞赛中为权衡模型提供了定量支持。促使权衡模型产生的一条证据线索是，在两个单期结果的选择中，当传达出早一点得到较少意味着之后什么都得不到时，对晚一点得到更多的偏好会增加，但当传达出晚一点得到更多意味着早一点什么都得不到时，偏好保持不变。我们的结果表明，这确实是由支持权衡模型的那些因素驱动的。权衡模型也涵盖了所有关于货币收益序列偏好的其余证据。
