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“跨期权衡中时间的累积加权”:对斯科尔滕、里德和桑伯恩(2016年)的修正

"Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs": Correction to Scholten, Read, and Sanborn (2016).

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2017 May;146(5):650. doi: 10.1037/xge0000313.

Abstract

Reports an error in "Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs" by Marc Scholten, Daniel Read and Adam Sanborn (, 2016[Sep], Vol 145[9], 1177-1205). In the article, there was an error in Table 1. The preference for faster accumulation read {1,000, 0, 1,000} > {0, 500, 0}. It should read {0, 1,000, 0} > {500, 0, 500}. In addition, in the section , all the equations with the inequality ">" should read "≥" instead. The impact of this change is that, when considering the best model for each participant, as measured by Bayes Factors, the absolute goodness of fit, as measured by Bayesian -values, were better than reported in both Table A2 and the text. All of the corrected cells in Table A2 are 0%, meaning that none of the participants across Experiments 2-4 had a significantly ( <.05) poor fit by the model that described them best. None of the conclusions drawn in the text are altered by this change. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-41092-003.) We examine preferences for sequences of delayed monetary gains. In the experimental literature, two prominent models have been advanced as psychological descriptions of preferences for sequences. In one model, the instantaneous utilities of the outcomes in a sequence are discounted as a function of their delays, and assembled into a discounted utility of the sequence. In the other model, the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is considered along with utility or disutility from improvement in outcome utilities and utility or disutility from the spreading of outcome utilities. Drawing on three threads of evidence concerning preferences for sequences of monetary gains, we propose that the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is traded off against the of utility accumulation. In our first experiment, aggregate choice behavior provides qualitative support for the tradeoff model. In three subsequent experiments, one of which incentivized, disaggregate choice behavior provides quantitative support for the tradeoff model in Bayesian model contests. One thread of evidence motivating the tradeoff model is that, when, in the choice between two single dated outcomes, it is conveyed that receiving less sooner means receiving nothing later, preference for receiving more later increases, but when it is conveyed that receiving more later means receiving nothing sooner, preference is left unchanged. Our results show that this is indeed driven by those supporting the tradeoff model. The tradeoff model also accommodates all remaining evidence on preferences for sequences of monetary gains. (PsycINFO Database Record

摘要

报告马克·斯科尔滕、丹尼尔·里德和亚当·桑伯恩所著的《跨期权衡中时间的累积加权》(,2016年9月,第145卷第9期,1177 - 1205页)中的一处错误。在该文章中,表1存在错误。对更快积累的偏好应是{1,000, 0, 1,000} > {0, 500, 0},实际应为{0, 1,000, 0} > {500, 0, 500}。此外,在该部分中,所有带有不等式“>”的方程应改为“≥”。此更改的影响是,在考虑用贝叶斯因子衡量的每个参与者的最佳模型时,用贝叶斯值衡量的绝对拟合优度比表A2和文本中所报告的更好。表A2中所有校正后的单元格均为0%,这意味着在实验2 - 4中,没有一个参与者被最能描述他们的模型显著拟合不佳(p <.05)。文本中得出的结论均未因这一更改而改变。(原始文章的以下摘要出现在记录2016 - 41092 - 003中。)我们研究了对延迟货币收益序列的偏好。在实验文献中,有两个突出的模型被提出作为对序列偏好的心理学描述。在一个模型中,序列中结果的即时效用根据其延迟进行贴现,并汇总为序列的贴现效用。在另一个模型中,序列中结果的累积效用与结果效用改善带来的效用或负效用以及结果效用分散带来的效用或负效用一起被考虑。基于关于货币收益序列偏好的三条证据线索,我们提出序列中结果的累积效用要与效用积累的进行权衡。在我们的第一个实验中,总体选择行为为权衡模型提供了定性支持。在随后的三个实验中,其中一个有激励措施,个体选择行为在贝叶斯模型竞赛中为权衡模型提供了定量支持。促使权衡模型产生的一条证据线索是,在两个单期结果的选择中,当传达出早得到较少意味着晚一无所获时,对晚得到更多的偏好会增加,但当传达出晚得到更多意味着早一无所获时,偏好保持不变。我们的结果表明,这种确实是由支持权衡模型的因素驱动的。权衡模型也涵盖了关于货币收益序列偏好的所有其余证据。(PsycINFO数据库记录

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