Centre for Mobilities Research, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YL, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2013 Jan 28;371(1986):20110566. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0566. Print 2013 Mar 13.
This paper examines various aspects of moving from high carbon economies and societies to a cluster of low carbon systems. First, some historical material is considered from the Second World War and the 1970s, periods with some lessons for the contemporary 'powering down' of whole societies. Second, analysis is provided of some green shoots of a powering down of existing systems identifiable in the contemporary developed world. Third, analysis is provided of the array of systems, social practices and innovations that would have to develop in order to effect powering down on a sufficient scale and within an appropriate time period. Most examples are drawn from transport and mobility. Finally, the paper demonstrates just why developing new systems is so hard, especially as this must involve a transformed cluster of systems. The forces that make a new cluster unlikely are exceptionally powerful and make this a very difficult but not impossible outcome.
本文探讨了从高碳经济和社会向低碳系统集群转变的各个方面。首先，从第二次世界大战和 20 世纪 70 年代的历史材料中汲取了一些经验教训，这些时期为当代整个社会的“减速”提供了一些借鉴。其次，分析了当代发达世界中现有系统减速的一些初步迹象。第三，分析了为了在足够的规模和适当的时间内实现减速，必须发展的一系列系统、社会实践和创新。大多数例子都取自交通和流动性。最后，本文展示了为什么开发新系统如此困难，尤其是因为这必须涉及到一个转型的系统集群。使新集群不太可能出现的力量极其强大，这使得这是一个非常困难但并非不可能的结果。
