Natural history of Yersinia pestis pneumonia in aerosol-challenged BALB/c mice.

After a relatively short untreated interval, pneumonic plague has a mortality approaching 100%. We employed a murine model of aerosol challenge with Yersinia pestis to investigate the early course of pneumonic plague in the lung, blood, and spleen. We fit a mathematical model to all data simultaneously. The model fit to the data was acceptable. The number of organisms in the lung at baseline was estimated to be 135 (median) or 1,184 (mean) CFU/g. The doubling time was estimated as 1.5 to 1.7 h. Between 1 and 12 h postexposure, counts declined, but they then increased by 24 h, a finding hypothesized to be due to innate immunity. The model predicted that innate immunity declined with a half-time of 3 to 3.8 h. The threshold for bacteremia was 6.4 × 10(4) to 1.52 × 10(6) CFU/g. By 42 to 48 h, stationary phase was obtained. Lung bacterial burdens exceeded 10 log CFU/g. Obviating early defenses allows for rapid amplification of Y. pestis in bacteremia, making the rapid course with high mortality understandable.