Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
PLoS One. 2013;8(2):e54453. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0054453. Epub 2013 Feb 11.
The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.
扩散的生态进化动态被认为是决定种群对环境变化反应的关键。在这里，通过开发一种新的建模方法，我们表明，当猎物物种表现出时空复杂动态时，捕食者更有可能进化为更频繁地迁移，并对其目的地斑块更具选择性。我们还证明，扩散的成本在空间和时间上可能有很大的差异。也许由于当前的环境变化，许多关键的猎物物种目前正在其时空动态中发生重大转变。通过在计算机上探索类似的转变，我们预测当猎物动态从稳定转变为复杂时，捕食者种群将最脆弱。在复杂动态下进化出的更复杂的扩散规则及其更大的方差，将使捕食者能够在比相对稳定的猎物条件下进化出的规则更广泛的猎物动态范围内生存。
