Gonçalves Sandra D, Moultrie Tom A
Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Afr J Reprod Health. 2012 Dec;16(4):29-42.
This paper examines the risk of child mortality associated with short preceding birth intervals in Mozambique. We apply a piecewise log-rate model to a pooled dataset comprising 36,305 live births from the 1997 and 2003 Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Our results show that the effects of short preceding intervals are strongest during the first month of life, particularly the first week, indicating prenatal maternal depletion as the dominant pathway. The rapid decline in mortality rates from intervals of less than six months to the category 30 to 35 months suggests an optimal waiting period of at least 30 months between one birth and the next pregnancy. 73 per cent of births had preceding intervals less than 30 months which, amidst low contraception use, indicates a potential for family planning programs to contribute to child survival and the attainment of Millennium Development Goal 4 in Mozambique.
本文研究了莫桑比克近期生育间隔时间过短与儿童死亡风险之间的关系。我们将分段对数比率模型应用于一个汇总数据集，该数据集包含了1997年和2003年莫桑比克人口与健康调查（DHS）中的36,305例活产数据。我们的研究结果表明，近期生育间隔时间过短的影响在婴儿出生后的第一个月最为明显，尤其是第一周，这表明产前母体营养消耗是主要原因。死亡率从间隔时间不足六个月快速下降到30至35个月这一类别，表明两次生育之间的最佳等待期至少为30个月。73%的分娩其前次生育间隔时间不足30个月，在避孕措施使用率较低的情况下，这表明计划生育项目在莫桑比克对儿童生存以及实现千年发展目标4具有潜在作用。
