Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
Soc Sci Med. 2013 Apr;82:79-86. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.01.026. Epub 2013 Feb 5.
The objective was to develop and test a framework based on a biopsychosocial model that can be used to identify factors associated with subjective (self-estimated) life expectancy (SLE). SLE predicts important work and retirement decisions so a better understanding of the factors that contribute to an individual's thoughts about their likely age at death is essential for late-career and financial planning and for developing interventions aimed at addressing inappropriate estimates. This is a sub-study of the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. Survey data were collected at two time points (3 years apart) from 2579 participants aged over 55 years. Correlations and regression analyses tested the relationship of SLE with biomedical/genetic factors (age, health diagnoses, parental longevity), socioeconomic factors (income, education) health behaviors (exercise, smoking, alcohol use, diet), and psychosocial factors (optimism, distress, social connectedness). Variables within each set of factors except the socioeconomic set were significantly related to SLE. Healthy lifestyle behaviors significantly moderated the effect of parental longevity. The findings indicate that individuals construct an understanding of their personal life expectancy based on similar factors that predict actual life expectancy, but not all mortality risk factors appear to be weighted realistically. The findings imply that, at least to some extent, SLE is not a stable construct and might be amenable to intervention.
目的是开发和测试一个基于生物心理社会模型的框架，用于识别与主观（自我估计）预期寿命（SLE）相关的因素。SLE 预测着重要的工作和退休决策，因此，更好地了解导致个体对自己可能死亡年龄的想法的因素，对于职业晚期和财务规划以及开发旨在解决不适当估计的干预措施至关重要。这是澳大利亚 45 岁及以上研究队列的子研究。从 2579 名年龄在 55 岁以上的参与者中，在两个时间点（相隔 3 年）收集了调查数据。相关性和回归分析测试了 SLE 与生物医学/遗传因素（年龄、健康诊断、父母寿命）、社会经济因素（收入、教育）、健康行为（锻炼、吸烟、饮酒、饮食）和心理社会因素（乐观、困扰、社交联系）之间的关系。除了社会经济因素外，每个因素组内的变量都与 SLE 显著相关。健康的生活方式行为显著调节了父母寿命的影响。研究结果表明，个体根据类似的预测实际预期寿命的因素构建了对个人预期寿命的理解，但并非所有的死亡风险因素似乎都能得到现实的重视。这一发现意味着，至少在某种程度上，SLE 不是一个稳定的结构，可能容易受到干预。
