Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Social Demography Department, The Hague, the Netherlands.
Eur J Public Health. 2010 Feb;20(1):47-51. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckp118. Epub 2009 Oct 12.
Virtually all Western countries are seeking to bring retirement ages more in line with increases in longevity. The central question in this article is whether individuals choose a retirement age that fits their life expectancy. This would be ideal from a public policy perspective. The present study aims to test empirically whether retirement planning varies with expectations of survival among a sample of older employees in the Netherlands. Two questions are addressed: (i) what are older employees' expectations of their remaining lifetime, and what factors influence this subjective life expectancy? (ii) Are individuals who perceive longer life horizons (high subjective life expectancy) more inclined to retire later than people who expect to live shorter?
Using data from a panel study on retirement behaviour in the Netherlands (N = 1621 older employees aged 50-60 years), regression and survival models are estimated to examine the effect of subjective life expectancy on retirement planning and behaviour.
The results indicate that subjective life expectancy is a factor that is taken into account in retirement decision making, at least as far as retirement intentions are concerned. Older employees with longer time horizons have a preference for later retirement. When it comes to actual behaviour, however, time horizon does not appear to play a role.
The results suggest that particularly employees with a high perceived life expectancy and an intention to work longer do not succeed in carrying their intentions into effect.
几乎所有西方国家都在寻求将退休年龄与预期寿命的延长更加匹配。本文的核心问题是个人是否会选择符合其预期寿命的退休年龄。从公共政策的角度来看，这是最理想的。本研究旨在通过对荷兰老年员工样本的实证研究来检验退休规划是否会随着对生存的预期而变化。有两个问题需要回答：（i）老年员工对其剩余寿命的预期是多少，哪些因素会影响这种主观预期寿命？（ii）那些认为寿命更长的人（主观预期寿命高）是否比预期寿命较短的人更倾向于晚退休？
使用来自荷兰退休行为面板研究的数据（N = 1621 名 50-60 岁的老年员工），采用回归和生存模型来检验主观预期寿命对退休规划和行为的影响。
结果表明，主观预期寿命是退休决策中考虑的一个因素，至少就退休意向而言是如此。具有较长时间视野的老年员工更倾向于晚退休。然而，就实际行为而言，时间视野似乎没有发挥作用。
研究结果表明，尤其是那些主观预期寿命较高且打算工作更长时间的员工，他们的意向并没有成功转化为实际行动。
