Vallone R P, Griffin D W, Lin S, Ross L
Stanford University, California 94305-2130.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 1990 Apr;58(4):582-92. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.58.4.582.
In a follow-up study to Dunning, Griffin, Milojkovic, and L. Ross (1990), which had investigated the phenomenon of overconfidence in social prediction, two samples of first-year undergraduates were invited to make predictions about their own future responses (and, in the case of Sample 2, also those of their roommates) over the months ahead. These predictions were accompanied by confidence estimates and were evaluated in the light of actual responses reported later by the subjects in question. The primary finding was that self-predictions, like social predictions, proved to be consistently overconfident. As in Dunning et al., moreover, overconfidence could be traced to two sources. First, expressions of particularly high confidence rarely proved to be warranted; as confidence increased, the gap between accuracy and confidence widened. Second, predictions that went against relevant base rates yielded very low accuracy in the face of relatively unattenuated confidence levels. The implications of these results are discussed, and one potentially important underlying mechanism--the failure to make adequate inferential allowance for the uncertainties of situational construal--is proposed for further research.
在邓宁、格里芬、米洛耶维奇和L. 罗斯（1990年）的一项后续研究中，该研究调查了社会预测中的过度自信现象，邀请了两组一年级本科生对他们自己未来几个月的反应进行预测（对于第二组样本，还包括他们室友的反应）。这些预测伴随着信心估计，并根据相关受试者后来报告的实际反应进行评估。主要发现是，自我预测和社会预测一样，被证明一直存在过度自信的情况。此外，和邓宁等人的研究一样，过度自信可归因于两个来源。首先，特别高的信心表达很少被证明是有根据的；随着信心的增加，准确性和信心之间的差距扩大。其次，与相关基础概率相悖的预测在面对相对未减弱的信心水平时，准确性非常低。讨论了这些结果的含义，并提出了一个潜在的重要潜在机制——未能对情境解释的不确定性做出充分的推理考虑——以供进一步研究。
