Department of Health Studies, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Ann Surg Oncol. 2013 Aug;20(8):2746-53. doi: 10.1245/s10434-013-2892-y. Epub 2013 Mar 17.
Reports of similar age-specific incidence rates and a female-to-male gender disparity by racial/ethnic groups suggests that further consideration of race-specific patterns may confer insight into the possible causes of thyroid cancer or explanations for the increase in incidence.
We used the National Cancer Institute's (NCIs) surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) program and Joinpoint Regression for cases diagnosed during 1992-2009 to investigate trends and rates of acceleration for papillary thyroid cancer by gender and race/ethnicity.
We determined the annual percent change (APC) and found a yearly increase of 7.0 % for papillary thyroid cancer for the most recent APC trend, with an APC of 6.3 and 7.1 % for white males and females, respectively; an APC of 4.3 and 8.4 % for black males and females, respectively; an APC of 4.2 and 6.7 % for Hispanic males and females, respectively; and an APC of 3.4 and 6.4 % in Asian/PI males and females, respectively. The APC projections show the rates of papillary thyroid cancer rising in males, but the patterns are more dramatic in females, with rates of papillary thyroid cancer in females surpassing rates of common cancers and becoming the third most common cancer in women of all ages by 2019.
Although the lowest rates of thyroid cancer are observed in blacks, the greatest rate of acceleration is occurring in black females. Our data also show that the rate of papillary thyroid cancer will continue to surpass rates of ovarian cancer, and in white women: it is projected to be more incident than colorectal cancer as well; and in Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander women, rates of papillary thyroid cancer are projected to be higher than lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancers in the near future.
按种族/民族划分，报告的相似年龄特异性发病率和男女性别差异表明，进一步考虑种族特异性模式可能有助于深入了解甲状腺癌的可能病因或发病率增加的解释。
我们使用美国国家癌症研究所（NCI）的监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）计划和 Joinpoint 回归，分析了 1992-2009 年期间诊断出的病例，以调查性别和种族/民族对甲状腺乳头状癌的趋势和加速率。
我们确定了年度百分比变化（APC），发现最近的 APC 趋势中甲状腺乳头状癌每年增加 7.0%，白种男性和女性的 APC 分别为 6.3%和 7.1%；黑种男性和女性的 APC 分别为 4.3%和 8.4%；西班牙裔男性和女性的 APC 分别为 4.2%和 6.7%；亚洲/太平洋岛民男性和女性的 APC 分别为 3.4%和 6.4%。APC 预测显示，男性甲状腺乳头状癌的发病率正在上升，但女性的模式更为明显，到 2019 年，女性甲状腺乳头状癌的发病率超过常见癌症，成为所有年龄段女性中第三大常见癌症。
尽管黑人的甲状腺癌发病率最低，但加速率最高的是黑人女性。我们的数据还表明，甲状腺乳头状癌的发病率将继续超过卵巢癌的发病率，在白人女性中：预计它将比结直肠癌更常见；在西班牙裔和亚洲/太平洋岛民女性中，在不久的将来，甲状腺乳头状癌的发病率预计将高于肺癌、结直肠癌和卵巢癌。
