Zhang Lu, Jiang Liangliang, Xu Rong, Zhang Xuemei, Zhang Boxun, Yue Rensong
Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2025 Aug 26;16:1644270. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1644270. eCollection 2025.
A comprehensive evaluation of the disease burden is essential for identifying effective strategies to address thyroid cancer. This study delineates the long-term global trends in thyroid cancer and its epidemiological characteristics.
Data on thyroid cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were utilized. The burden of thyroid cancer was assessed through measures of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Additionally, a global risk attribution analysis was conducted, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the future global burden of thyroid cancer.
In 2021, there were an estimated 2 million (95% UI: 1.8, 2.2) cases of thyroid cancer worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 23.1 (95% UI: 20.7, 25.6) per 100,000 individuals, reflecting a 55% increase since 1990. The global mortality from thyroid cancer in 2021 was 44,800 (95% UI: 39,900, 48,500), with an age-standardized rate of 0.5 per 100,000 people (95% UI: 0.5, 0.6), marking a 7% decrease since 1990. In the same year, the global total number of DALYs attributable to thyroid cancer was 1,246.5 thousand (95% UI: 1,094.4, 1,375.9), with an age-standardized rate of 14.6 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.8, 16.1), representing a 4.2% reduction compared to 1990.
Over the past three decades, the age-standardized prevalence rate of thyroid cancer has increased, while the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate have decreased. Significant variations in prevalence, morbidity, and mortality exist across regions and countries. SDI plays a crucial role in the development of thyroid cancer, which is expected to remain a major public health challenge in the future.
全面评估疾病负担对于确定应对甲状腺癌的有效策略至关重要。本研究描述了甲状腺癌的长期全球趋势及其流行病学特征。
利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究中关于甲状腺癌的数据。通过发病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和社会人口学指数（SDI）来评估甲状腺癌的负担。此外，进行了全球风险归因分析，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型来预测未来全球甲状腺癌负担。
2021年，全球估计有200万（95%不确定区间：180万，220万）例甲状腺癌病例，年龄标准化患病率为每10万人23.1例（95%不确定区间：20.7，25.6），自1990年以来增长了55%。2021年全球甲状腺癌死亡人数为44,800（95%不确定区间：39,900，48,500），年龄标准化死亡率为每10万人0.5例（95%不确定区间：0.5，0.6），自1990年以来下降了7%。同年，全球归因于甲状腺癌的DALYs总数为124.65万（95%不确定区间：109.44万，137.59万），年龄标准化率为每10万人口14.6例（95%不确定区间：12.8，16.1），与1990年相比下降了4.2%。
在过去三十年中，甲状腺癌的年龄标准化患病率有所上升，而年龄标准化死亡率和DALYs率有所下降。不同地区和国家在患病率、发病率和死亡率方面存在显著差异。SDI在甲状腺癌的发展中起着关键作用，预计未来它仍将是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。
