[Assessment of the risk of the transition of a monofocal clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis].

We followed up 102 patients with a monofocal clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) during 8 years. Factors determining its transition to definite multiple sclerosis were singled out according to the data of anamnesis and MRI scans. Age of patients at the onset of CIS and the volume of demyelination measured by the first MRI were the most significant predictors of the transition of CIS to definite multiple sclerosis. A mathematical model based on logistic regression analysis for the estimation of the risk of this transition is suggested.