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比较建模方法以确定在受控人体疟疾感染期间的肝到血接种物和寄生虫繁殖率。

Comparison of modeling methods to determine liver-to-blood inocula and parasite multiplication rates during controlled human malaria infection.

机构信息

Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, UK.

出版信息

J Infect Dis. 2013 Jul 15;208(2):340-5. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jit156. Epub 2013 Apr 9.

DOI:10.1093/infdis/jit156
PMID:23570846
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3685228/
Abstract

Controlled human malaria infection is used to measure efficacy of candidate malaria vaccines before field studies are undertaken. Mathematical modeling using data from quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) parasitemia monitoring can discriminate between vaccine effects on the parasite's liver and blood stages. Uncertainty regarding the most appropriate modeling method hinders interpretation of such trials. We used qPCR data from 267 Plasmodium falciparum infections to compare linear, sine-wave, and normal-cumulative-density-function models. We find that the parameters estimated by these models are closely correlated, and their predictive accuracy for omitted data points was similar. We propose that future studies include the linear model.

摘要

人体疟疾感染控制用于在进行现场研究之前衡量候选疟疾疫苗的功效。使用来自定量聚合酶链反应（qPCR）寄生虫监测的数据进行数学建模，可以区分疫苗对寄生虫肝期和血期的作用。对于最合适的建模方法的不确定性阻碍了对这些试验的解释。我们使用来自 267 例恶性疟原虫感染的 qPCR 数据比较了线性、正弦波和正态累积密度函数模型。我们发现这些模型估计的参数密切相关，并且它们对省略数据点的预测准确性相似。我们建议未来的研究包括线性模型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e372/3685228/09dd87204729/jit15601.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e372/3685228/09dd87204729/jit15601.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e372/3685228/09dd87204729/jit15601.jpg

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