Groundwater exploitation management under land subsidence constraint: empirical evidence from the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain, China.

Land subsidence caused by extensive groundwater pumping has become a factor which cannot be ignored in the sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. The Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain is one of the locations with China's most severe land subsidence problems; the region has experienced dramatic land subsidence since the 1960s. Historical records of groundwater extraction, hydraulic head, and land subsidence show the latter to be the result of continual and excessive extraction of groundwater from deep confined aquifers. This study reconstructs land subsidence using an integrated regional groundwater flow and land subsidence model. The model is calibrated using land subsidence and groundwater level measurements from 1996 to 2007. Simulation results reproduce the cones of depression for groundwater heads and nadirs of land subsidence reasonably well. The calibrated model is used to evaluate the efficacy of land subsidence prevention plans from 2008 to 2010, and to predict future land subsidence over the next decade considering several groundwater exploitation scenarios. The results show the main cause of land subsidence to be inelastic compaction of the aquifer system resulting from continuously declining water levels. The model reveals that while the area of land subsidence will continue to extend, the rate of this extension may be significantly decreased by reduction of groundwater extraction. If the current land subsidence prevention and reclamation plans are continued and surface water diversion projects implemented, though land subsidence cannot be halted, the rate at which it is occurring can be effectively reduced.