基于地理加权回归（GWR）模型分析地下水对北京地面沉降的影响。
Analysis of the influence of groundwater on land subsidence in Beijing based on the geographical weighted regression (GWR) model.
机构信息
Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Base of the State Key Laboratory of Urban Environmental Process and Digital Modeling, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Key Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Key Laboratory of Mechanism, Prevention and Mitigation of Land Subsidence, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China.
Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Base of the State Key Laboratory of Urban Environmental Process and Digital Modeling, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Key Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; Key Laboratory of Mechanism, Prevention and Mitigation of Land Subsidence, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 10;738:139405. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139405. Epub 2020 May 19.
A global geological phenomenon caused by natural or human activities is described as land subsidence. Groundwater extraction plays a significant part in causing land subsidence. Due to economic development, urban expansion, and rapid population expansion, the unscientific exploitation of groundwater in Beijing has been accelerated, which makes it the region with the fastest land subsidence rate in China. To study the spatial heterogeneity of land subsidence caused by groundwater aquifers level changes, the monitoring results of land subsidence in 2003-2010 years were analyzed by using PS-InSAR, based on ENVISAT ASAR in Beijing plain area. The maximum value of accumulated land subsidence in the study area is 707 mm, and in this study area multiple subsidence center areas have been formed. A GWR model based on a regular grid has been established by exploring the effects of unconfined aquifer (UA), first confined aquifer (FCA), second confined aquifer (SCA), third confined aquifer (TCA) on land subsidence and their spatial non-stationarity. The change of subsidence in all subsidence areas is positively related to the change of SCA water level. Except the fact that the main control factors of Liyuan and Songzhuang are the change of UA layer, the change of SCA is the main control factor of land subsidence in most subsidence areas. Though the contribution rate of SCA to land subsidence is the highest, the contribution rate of TCA has been increasing. It is predicted that the impact on land subsidence will increase year by year. The results of this will not only help to understand the spatial impact patterns of aquifers on land subsidence zones, but also to formulate optimal groundwater regulation and recharge policies. There is a scarcity of the consideration of the compressible layer in the study and it will become more comprehensive if further datasets are obtained.
一种由自然或人为活动引起的全球性地质现象被描述为地面沉降。地下水开采在导致地面沉降方面起着重要作用。由于经济发展、城市扩张和人口快速增长，北京地下水的开采在没有科学规划的情况下加速进行，这使得北京成为中国地面沉降速度最快的地区。为了研究因地下水位变化引起的地面沉降的空间异质性，利用 PS-InSAR 分析了 2003-2010 年北京平原地区基于 ENVISAT ASAR 的地面沉降监测结果。研究区累积地面沉降最大值为 707mm，形成了多个沉降中心区。通过探讨无压含水层（UA）、第一承压含水层（FCA）、第二承压含水层（SCA）和第三承压含水层（TCA）对地面沉降的影响及其空间非平稳性，建立了基于规则网格的 GWR 模型。所有沉降区的沉降变化与 SCA 水位变化呈正相关。除了梨园和宋庄的主要控制因素是 UA 层变化外，大多数沉降区的主要控制因素是 SCA 的变化。虽然 SCA 对地面沉降的贡献率最高，但 TCA 的贡献率一直在增加。预计对地面沉降的影响将逐年增加。研究结果不仅有助于了解含水层对地面沉降带的空间影响模式，而且有助于制定最佳的地下水调控和补给政策。本研究中对可压缩层的考虑较少，如果获得更多数据集，结果将更加全面。
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