Institute for the Environment, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UB8 3PH, UK.
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Jul 2;47(13):7224-32. doi: 10.1021/es3051058. Epub 2013 Jun 20.
The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions. The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.
预测药品和个人护理产品在未来和现在对水生环境造成的风险，是人们对这些污染物的生物效应越来越关注鱼类和其他动物之后的 20 大研究问题之一。为此，确定风险最大的地区非常重要，特别是在水资源紧张的国家，这些地区进入河流网络的污染物稀释程度更为有限。本研究首次使用水文模型来估算南澳大利亚水资源紧张流域中与英国流域以及基于人口和气候变化预测的 2050 年药物和天然甾体雌激素浓度。结果表明，尽管气候和人口统计学存在差异，但模拟出的澳大利亚污水处理厂和接收河流中甾体雌激素的浓度（模拟）预计与英国和欧洲的浓度相似，超过了预测对野生鱼类性别畸形的联合雌二醇当量无影响浓度。此外，到 2050 年，预计雌激素污染和对野生动物的潜在风险将适度增加，浓度最高可能增加两倍。
