Department of Mathematics, The Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan.
Bull Math Biol. 2013 Jul;75(7):1104-37. doi: 10.1007/s11538-013-9845-2. Epub 2013 May 1.
A new two-strain model, for assessing the impact of basic control measures, treatment and dose-structured mass vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics in a population, is designed. The model has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever its associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model has a unique, and locally-asymptotically stable, endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity and another condition holds. Numerical simulations of the model show that, with the expected 50% minimum efficacy of the first vaccine dose, vaccinating 55% of the susceptible population with the first vaccine dose will be sufficient to effectively control the spread of cholera in the community. Such effective control can also be achieved if 50% of the first vaccine dose recipients take the second dose. It is shown that a control strategy that emphasizes the use of antibiotic treatment is more effective than one that emphasizes the use of basic (non-pharmaceutical) anti-cholera control measures only. Numerical simulations show that, while the universal strategy (involving all three control measures) gives the best outcome in minimizing cholera burden in the community, the combined basic anti-cholera control measures and treatment strategy also has very effective community-wide impact.
设计了一种新的两菌株模型，用于评估基本控制措施、治疗和剂量结构的大规模疫苗接种对人群中霍乱传播动态的影响。只要其相关繁殖数小于 1，该模型就具有全局渐近稳定的无病平衡点。当阈值数量超过 1 且满足另一个条件时，该模型具有唯一的、局部渐近稳定的地方性平衡点。该模型的数值模拟表明，第一剂疫苗的预期最低功效为 50%，用第一剂疫苗为 55%的易感人群接种疫苗将足以有效控制霍乱在社区中的传播。如果 50%的第一剂疫苗接种者接受第二剂疫苗，也可以实现这种有效控制。结果表明，强调抗生素治疗的控制策略比仅强调基本（非药物）抗霍乱控制措施的策略更有效。数值模拟表明，虽然普遍策略（涉及所有三种控制措施）在使社区中霍乱负担最小化方面效果最好，但联合基本抗霍乱控制措施和治疗策略也对整个社区具有非常有效的影响。
