Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA.
Curr Environ Health Rep. 2018 Jun;5(2):293-304. doi: 10.1007/s40572-018-0196-x.
Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed.
QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.
目的综述：水传播肠道病原体仍然是全球健康威胁。越来越多的定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）和传染病传播建模（IDTM）被用于评估水传播病原体风险并评估缓解措施。然而，这些建模工作主要是为不同的目的和在不同的环境中独立进行的。在这篇综述中，我们考察了每种建模策略的应用环境。
最新发现：QMRA 研究主要集中在高收入国家（HICs）的食物污染和娱乐用水以及低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）的饮用水和废水上。IDTM 研究主要集中在大型暴发（主要是 LMICs）和疫苗可预防疾病（LMICs 和 HICs）上。人类生态学决定了病原体利用的生态位，导致研究人员在不同的环境中关注不同的风险评估研究策略。为了加强风险建模，应将 QMRA 和 IDTM 方法集成在一起，以包括环境中病原体的动态和通过人群传播的病原体。
