School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2013 Aug 1;458-460:1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.04.008. Epub 2013 Apr 30.
China is one of the countries with the highest ambient particle levels in the world; however, there have been no epidemiologic studies examining the effects of fine particle (PM2.5), coarse particle (PM10-2.5) and black carbon (BC) simultaneously on morbidity outcomes. In this study, we conducted a time-series analysis to evaluate the acute effects of PM2.5, PM10-2.5, and BC on daily hospital visits in Shanghai, China. During our study period, the mean daily concentrations of PM2.5, PM10-2.5 and BC were 53.9 μg/m(3), 38.4 μg/m(3) and 3.9 μg/m(3), respectively. We found significant associations of PM2.5, PM 10-2.5, and BC with daily hospital visits. An inter-quartile range increase of the average concentrations of the current and previous days in PM2.5, PM10-2.5 and BC was associated with a 1.88% (95% CI: 0.69% to 3.06%), a 1.30% (95% CI: 0.25% to 2.34%) and a 1.33% (95% CI: 0.34% to 2.32%) increase in emergency-room visits, respectively. For outpatient visits, the corresponding estimated changes were -2.44% (95% CI: -6.62% to 1.74%), 1.09% (95% CI: -2.72% to 4.90%) and 3.34% (95% CI: 0.10% to 6.57%) respectively. The effects of BC were more robust than the effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 in two-pollutant models. To our knowledge, this is the first study in China, or even in Asian developing countries, to report the effect of PM2.5, PM10-2.5, and BC simultaneously on morbidity. Our findings also suggest that BC could serve as a valuable air quality indicator that reflects the health risks of airborne particles.
中国是世界上环境颗粒物水平最高的国家之一；然而，目前还没有研究同时考察细颗粒物（PM2.5）、粗颗粒物（PM10-2.5）和黑碳（BC）对发病率的影响。在这项研究中，我们进行了时间序列分析，以评估 PM2.5、PM10-2.5 和 BC 对中国上海每日医院就诊人数的急性影响。在我们的研究期间，PM2.5、PM10-2.5 和 BC 的日平均浓度分别为 53.9 μg/m³、38.4 μg/m³和 3.9 μg/m³。我们发现 PM2.5、PM10-2.5 和 BC 与每日医院就诊人数之间存在显著关联。当前和前一天 PM2.5、PM10-2.5 和 BC 的平均浓度每增加一个四分位间距，急诊就诊人数分别增加 1.88%（95%置信区间：0.69%至 3.06%）、1.30%（95%置信区间：0.25%至 2.34%）和 1.33%（95%置信区间：0.34%至 2.32%）。对于门诊就诊，相应的估计变化分别为-2.44%（95%置信区间：-6.62%至 1.74%）、1.09%（95%置信区间：-2.72%至 4.90%）和 3.34%（95%置信区间：0.10%至 6.57%）。在双污染物模型中，BC 的影响比 PM2.5 和 PM10-2.5 的影响更显著。据我们所知，这是中国乃至亚洲发展中国家首次报告 PM2.5、PM10-2.5 和 BC 同时对发病率的影响。我们的研究结果还表明，BC 可以作为一个有价值的空气质量指标，反映空气中颗粒物的健康风险。
