Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA.
Sci Rep. 2013;3:1771. doi: 10.1038/srep01771.
Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.
心源性猝死 (SCD) 每年至少导致 18 万人死亡，仅在美国每年的平均成本就高达 2860 亿美元。在此，我们提出了一种新的 SCD 离散事件模拟模型，该模型量化了与动脉粥样硬化斑块形成、生长和破裂以及随后血栓形成、心律失常发生相关的一系列事件，以及在人群中的发生。该模型的预测结果与动脉粥样硬化三种主要类型的病理检查结果以及 SCD 的患病率和风险的流行病学数据非常吻合。这些模型预测可以确定干预措施，并且重要的是确定干预的最佳时间，这可能会对降低 SCD 风险产生重大影响（人群中 SCD 的数量减少 8 倍），并延长预期寿命。
