Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China.
Stroke. 2013 Jul;44(7):1924-9. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.000172. Epub 2013 May 7.
The iScore is a prediction tool developed to estimate the risk of death in patients after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke. Our aim was to determine the accuracy of the iScore in patients with ischemic stroke in China.
The iScore was used to predict 30-day mortality rate in 11 656 patients and 1-year mortality rate in 11 051 patients with acute ischemic stroke. These patients were identified from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) data set. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the C statistic. The calibration was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient.
The 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 5.4% and 14.3%, respectively. The C statistics were 0.825 (95% confidence interval, 0.807-0.843) for 30-day mortality and 0.822 (95% confidence interval, 0.810-0.833) for 1-year mortality. The plots of observed versus predicted mortality rates showed excellent model calibration in the external validation samples from the CNSR (Pearson correlation coefficient, 0.925 for 30-day and 0.998 for 1-year mortality; both P<0.0001).
The iScore reliably predicts 30-day and 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.
iScore 是一种预测工具，用于评估急性缺血性脑卒中住院患者的死亡风险。本研究旨在评估 iScore 在我国缺血性脑卒中患者中的预测准确性。
使用 iScore 预测了 11656 例急性缺血性脑卒中患者的 30 天死亡率和 11051 例患者的 1 年死亡率，这些患者均来自中国国家卒中登记数据库（CNSR）。采用 C 统计量评估模型的判别能力，采用 Pearson 相关系数评估校准度。
30 天和 1 年死亡率分别为 5.4%和 14.3%。30 天死亡率的 C 统计量为 0.825（95%置信区间，0.807-0.843），1 年死亡率的 C 统计量为 0.822（95%置信区间，0.810-0.833）。CNSR 外部验证样本中观测死亡率与预测死亡率的散点图显示模型校准度良好（30 天死亡率的 Pearson 相关系数为 0.925，P<0.0001；1 年死亡率的 Pearson 相关系数为 0.998，P<0.0001）。
iScore 能可靠地预测中国缺血性脑卒中患者的 30 天和 1 年死亡率。
